Mr Correia, Mr Carl, Ladies and Gentlemen,
It gives me great pleasure to welcome you to Berlin to the symposium “Time to Adapt! Climate Change and the European Water Dimension”.
“New Germany – Tropical nights in Bavaria…”, “Up and down – The global weather is going crazy….”, “Ski lifts relegated to museum pieces”
Such headlines have appeared in the papers in Germany in recent weeks - which have been far too warm for autumn and winter - and in connection with the publication of the new IPCC report ten days ago.
Autumn 2006 was the warmest autumn since the beginning of nationwide weather records in 1901. The temperatures over the last four months of 2006 alone were in some cases up to 5°C higher than the long-term average (1961 - 1990). The storm Kyrill in January - which was very unusual for this time of year - brought rail and air traffic in Germany and in many parts of Europe to a standstill. The damage totalled billions of euro.
Signs of climate change?
The IPCC report published on 2 February 2007 clearly shows that not only is climate change happening, it is also advancing more rapidly than even the most sceptical climate researchers expected. And there is no longer any doubt that humans are responsible for climate change! Over the past 100 years the average global temperature has increased by 0.7°C, thus more rapidly than at any time over the past 20,000 years. In view of the concentration of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere today, a further temperature rise can no longer be averted.
The global impacts of climate change and the dangers it poses are already being clearly felt. Glaciers are melting, the sea level is rising, the hazards of extreme weather events are increasing. The IPCC report shows that climate change caused by human activities is already leading to an increase in extreme weather events.
For example, in summer 2003 large regions of Europe were hit by a prolonged heat wave. Around 35,000 people died in Europe alone as a consequence of these scorching temperatures.
In the agricultural sector, damages of more than 10 billion euro were caused in central, southern and eastern Europe - damages that were not covered by insurances. Shipping on the Rhine had to be heavily restricted. A large number of power plants, including in Germany, were only able to work at a reduced capacity. Water from the rivers was already too warm, further heating would have had ecological consequences for the aquatic ecosystems and, from a purely technical perspective, the temperature of the cooling water was already much too high to be able to achieve a sufficient cooling effect.
The costs resulting from such events will continue to rise in future. The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) predicts economic damages caused by global climate change of 137 billion euro by the year 2050 in Germany alone unless countermeasures are taken in good time. The expected damages at international level are even higher: Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist at the World Bank, presented the results of his study for the British Government at the beginning of November last year. I am delighted that we will be welcoming Mr Terry Baker, one of the co-authors of this study, on the third day of this symposium. He will tell us about the results of the study in greater detail. But one thing can be said already: the results are very alarming! If we do not act resolutely and swiftly to introduce measures, losses in growth of up to 20% of the global GDP by 2100 can be expected. However, if we take adequate measures today the damages can be restricted to around 1% of the global GDP.
In other words, we have to act now to minimise the negative impacts of anthropogenic climate change.
Germany took over the Presidency of the EU and the Chair of the G8 in January. We have placed the topic of climate change high on the agenda at both levels.
We are aiming for progress along two paths:
Firstly, we have to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and worldwide. This is the only way to halt the global temperature increase and to limit it to below 2°C. To achieve this, the industrialised countries will have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by the year 2020 compared with 1990 levels. By 2050, reductions of 60 to 80% are necessary.
The Kyoto Protocol is a first, important step. But further steps must follow. The negotiations on the further development of the international climate protection regime beyond 2012 have already begun. In the framework of the UN climate negotiations in Nairobi in November 2006, the EU emphasised its willingness to continue playing a leading role and to set more ambitious absolute reduction targets. Germany even went a step beyond the EU position.
This year we can and we must set the decisive course for a multilateral climate protection regime for the post-2012 period. The crucial milestones for this are
I support the Commission’s proposals:
A 30% objective should thus be quite clearly set. Some press reports, however, have recently been giving the wrong impression that the Community is only pursuing a 20% target. With this powerful message, the EU will help break the deadlock in international climate protection negotiations.
The EU targets are a key component of the negotiation package which we are preparing during our Presidency and which builds on the successful architecture of the Kyoto Protocol. It aims to ensure that we do not exceed the 2 degree limit which has been laid down as a guideline several times by the EU heads of state and government.
We can implement these ambitious targets in an economically expedient way if we closely interlink climate policy with energy policy. I therefore support the Commission proposals for a twin-track strategy on increasing energy efficiency and expanding renewable energies.
Secondly, we have to make progress with precautionary action against the impacts of climate change. Even if we succeed - and we must succeed! - in quickly implementing all climate protection measures under discussion and restricting a further increase in the global temperature to 2°C, we will nevertheless have to face the consequences of climate change that are already all but inevitable.
The issue of adaptation has increasingly become a focus throughout the EU in recent months, after studies carried out in a range of Member States on vulnerability regarding the impacts of climate change clearly showed the extent of impacts to be expected. In Germany we decided at the end of 2005, on the basis of relevant studies, to develop a national concept for adaptation to climate change by the end of 2008 in order to ward off risks for the population, economic damages and social impacts.
The prerequisite for intelligent, effective and efficient adaptation to climate change is a good understanding of regional and sectoral impacts. Regional modelling of climate development is an essential basis in this regard. Major scientific progress has been made in this field recently.
We have numerous indications that water resources, the water balance and thus the water sector will be particularly affected, although the impacts will vary greatly from one region of Europe to the next. Climate change intensifies the water cycle and alters the amount and distribution of precipitation. In northern Europe there is likely to be an increase in annual rainfall, in southern Europe a decrease. In winter there will be more rainfall than snow. And as precipitation patterns change, other components of the water cycle will change too.
The annual run-off of Europe’s river basins has already changed in recent decades. While the run-off in rivers basins such as the Loire or Guadalquivir in southern Europe is decreasing, annual run-off in rivers basins stretching across Europe, such as the Danube, is increasing. Predictions for the year 2070 show a decrease in river flow for southern and south-eastern Europe of over 25% in some cases, with an increase of 25% in northern Europe. We will have to prepare for more frequent flooding, but also for longer periods with low water levels.
But the occurrence of extreme weather events is only one side of the coin. The other is the almost undetected gradual change, for example changes in the rates of groundwater recharge. Studies in Great Britain predict a 5 to 15% reduction in recharge. In the Elbe catchment area the average decrease is expected to reach 22% by the year 2055. In future many more people, in Europe too, will be living under water stress conditions.
The impacts of a higher variability of water availability and of extreme weather events will not only affect the water sector as such; a number of water-dependent sectors will have to adapt to direct or indirect impacts.
The fact that the resource water is particularly affected motivated us to organise this symposium during our EU Presidency together with the Commission’s Directorate General Environment. The focus of this symposium has intentionally been placed on the need for and options for adaptation in the water sector and selected water-dependent sectors of the economy.
Do the existing European water policy instruments, in particular the Water Framework Directive and the future Directive on Flood Risk Management, already provide a suitable legislative framework for adaptation measures in the Member States?
Do other EU policies already take sufficient account of the need for adaptation to climate change, or are amendments necessary? If so, what can be amended to create the right incentives and to prevent conflict of goals?
What contribution can sectors on the demand and user side make?
Is there a chance that water demand, for example in the agricultural sector, can be reduced by means of innovative concepts?
What form will a joint integrative approach have to take in order to cover future water demand, to protect humans from the impacts of climate change on the water balance and to keep socio-economic impacts as low as possible?
How can we interlink measures to restrict the global temperature increase with adaptation measures?
This symposium aims to address precisely these issues and to collect answers and solutions.
I am confident that the results of this symposium will make an important contribution to further discussion and decision-making processes at EU level. The European Commission has announced a green paper on adaptation for the first half of this year, and I am sure that the results of this symposium will find their way into this green paper, especially - and this is important to highlight - as three Directorates-General of the European Commission worked together in preparing this symposium. I am very pleased that you, Mr Correia, will be pursuing this issue further during Portugal’s EU Presidency. I would be happy if interim stock-taking were possible in the Council of Environment Ministers in the second half of this year.
In the spirit of the headlines in a German newspaper - “He who adapts, wins” - I wish us all fruitful discussions and a successful symposium.
Thank you!
